Software development industry is continuously changing. Apart from technological factors, also demography plays an important role — whether you are a software engineer or a human resources specialist. If you are a developer, you are bound by the 40 years’ duration of your career, determined by biology and economy. In human resources, your perspective may be shorter, although you have to take long term trends into account.

Forty years ago, in the time of my studies, software development was new. The organizational structure reflected the demographical one: at the top was our professor, then his assistants, at the bottom we, the students. Nowadays, software development is an established industry. Many reach an age of 40, 50 without achieving an managerial position. Moreover — industry wants young developers and slightly older managers. There is a large reservoir of unused human resources.

Another factor is the international cooperation and outsourcing. The perspective in Switzerland — a high cost country, potential outsourcer, may be different from India — a low cost country, potential subcontractor. What is the perspective of Russia?

Still another factor is the technical development. Will we invent a silver bullet that will make software development 10 or 100 times faster? Will the need for software increase forever? Will people lose the interest in technical gadgets altogether?

The experience of past 40 years can give us some hints about how the industry may develop in the future. At least it makes clear that the world in 10 (20, 30, 40) years will be profoundly different from the one we know now. It is a challenging task for the software industry to adapt to this (unknown) change. The developers have to update their technical and non-technical skills. The employers have to use wisely the available pool of human resources worldwide and to be open for the new organizational concepts.